Zero Hunger
End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture.
Rice & Corn Production in the Philippines (1987-2023)
The graph shows the production in units of rice and corn within the Philippines throughout the years of 1987 till 2023. Line plots display the rate of production for each crop within the time period, wherein each dip is labeled with a significant natural disaster that could have explained the sudden decrease in production.
Trendlines were also plotted and can be seen to show a positive relationship between the production of each crop per year and the corresponding year in which it was recorded.
Rice Supply & Prices: Insights for Philippine Food Security
Rice is a crucial staple food in Filipino households, yet the cost of rice steadily rises despite promises to lower grain prices. According to PSA, rice inflation increased from 19.6% in December 2023 to 22.6% in January 2024. Furthermore, the World Food Program (WFP) October 2022 report said 1 out of 10 households in the Philippines faced food insecurity.
Hence, we aim to explore the correlation between rice supply—Local Rice Production, Imports, and Stocks—and the Retail Prices of different types of rice (Special, Well Milled, Regular Milled) from 1995-2023 to offer insights to policymakers in ensuring food security in the Philippines.
Through Spearman's rank correlation, the nutshell plot revealed a strong positive correlation between local rice production and retail prices with coefficients of 0.95-0.97, suggesting that retail price increases with local production, contrary to the supply and demand expectations, likely influenced by increasing population and demand for rice. Moderate correlation exists between rice imports and retail prices with coefficients ranging from 0.47-0.54, potentially due to factors necessitating increased imports and import restrictions pre-Rice Tariffication Law. Similarly, moderate correlation exists between rice stocks and retail prices with coefficients of 0.43-0.44, likely influenced by inclusion of household stocks that do not affect retail prices.
These findings highlight the importance of correlation analysis in identifying confounding variables and policy responses in agriculture. Hence, to address the confounding variable for local production, we further measured the self-sufficiency level of the Philippines in rice by obtaining the ratio of production to consumption that indicates how well local rice production meets national rice consumption demands. Moderate negative correlation between the ratio of production to consumption and retail prices with -0.3 to -0.43 coefficients suggests that higher self-sufficiency corresponds to lower prices.
Leveraging these insights can help in enhancing food security in the Philippines.
Is Local Food Production Satiating Hunger in the Country?
The yearly indexes for both Food Industry Production and Hunger Growth (2001-2021) were commutatively compiled and illustrated in a line graph as shown. Over the course of 20 years, both can be seen to deviate; as food production grows annually, national hunger shrinks over time.
Thus, there's reason to speculate a direct causal relationship between the two, as the behavior of spikes between one variable can also trigger an indirectly proportional spike to the other (e.g. 2011). Moreover, it can also be seen that there are evident periods wherein Food Production Growth trends upwards, while Hunger Growth trends oppositely downwards (e.g. 2015-2020).
Overall, this could mean that a general increase in the growth of Food Production will eventually counter and conquer Hunger Growth within the country in the forthcoming future.
Prices of Common Household Food Items in the Philippines (2020-2024)
In October of 2023, Inquirer published an article titled, Food prices seen to rise until 2024, detailing an interview with Agricultural economist Geny Lapina on the potential rise in price of food items in 2024. He stated that international conflict, climate change, export restrictions in other countries, and high fuel prices are just some of the many factors contributing to these changes (Corrales, 2023). In the past few years as well, food prices have not always been consistent.
This plot illustrates the prices of several food items commonly found in a Filipino household over the years 2020 to 2024, with information sourced from the World Food Programme (WFP) Price Database. This is depicted using a 3D line graph, with each line displaying the trend in price of a specific food item over time.
A number are seen to be maintaining a relatively consistent price range (Eggs, Rice, Bananas, Chicken, Fish), while others frequently rise and fall in price (Carrots, Tomatoes, Red Onions). A few are also seen to be gradually rising in price (Beef, Pork) or gradually lowering in price (Garlic).
Rice Price Fluctuations Amidst Market and Economic Conditions (2010-2023)
The graph illustrates the fluctuation in the average wholesale price of rice in the Philippines from 2010 onwards. The y-axis represents the price in Philippine pesos (PHP), while the x-axis spans the years from 2010 to 2024. Starting at approximately Php 28.00 in 2010, the price of rice has shown a general upward trend, reaching up to Php 45.00 in recent years.
This increase is punctuated by several notable peaks that correspond to key market conditions and economic events. In January 2014, a significant price increase due to rampant hoarding, leading to a shortage of rice. Meanwhile, in December 2016, another spike in prices occurred, attributed to supply shortages in several regions due to prolonged El Nino and typhoons. In February 2018, the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) announced a rice crisis, causing a substantial rise in prices.
This is countered by the enactment of the Rice Tariffication Law in March 2019. This initially resulting in a decline in prices due to the liberalization of rice imports. The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic on April 2020 led to a price freeze as a lockdown measure, stabilizing the prices temporarily. Lastly, in the 3rd quarter of 2023, a sharp increase in prices was observed, driven by a rising inflation rate.
Overall, the graph highlights how various crises, policy changes, and economic conditions have impacted the wholesale price of rice in the Philippines over the years. With rice being a staple and main food consumed by Filipinos, this significantly highlights the pressing rice insecurity that the country deals with.
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| Title | Project by | |
|---|---|---|
Rice & Corn Production in the Philippines (1987-2023) | Extra Rice L.L. Andres, J.A. Manansala, B.K. Martin | |
Rice Supply & Prices: Insights for Philippine Food Security | AI Naku L.P. Dupalco, J. Hechanova, C.A. Sandoval | |
Is Local Food Production Satiating Hunger in the Country? | ALPFA F.A. Decampong, J.P. Lapira, A.T. Lopez | |
Prices of Common Household Food Items in the Philippines (2020-2024) | AS&R J.R. De Guzman, S.R. Pangilinan, A.V.M. Sy | |
Rice Price Fluctuations Amidst Market and Economic Conditions (2010-2023) | Baesian R.B. Diaz, G.V. Eladio, Y.U. Hebron | |